Jobs Key to Housing Recovery

Some recovery in the labor market and record low mortgage rates could help offset some of the pressures on the housing market, according to a new study released by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University.

“Right now, economists expect the unemployment rate to stay high, but if employment growth surprises on the upside or downside, housing numbers could too,” Eric Belsky, executive director of the center, said in a statement.

Home owners’ level of debt relative to equity stood at a record 163 percent at the beginning of the year, and housing costs have become a severe burden for more borrowers, the center adds.

Lenders Warn Foreclosure May End in Lawsuit

The housing crisis will spark a wave of lawsuits filed by lenders seeking to recoup loses on home sales and foreclosure auctions that do not return enough money to pay the mortgages in full, according to real estate and legal experts.

Experts predict that mortgage companies will begin to sue home owners in the next two years, including borrowers who ransack a house that has been lost to foreclosure and those who walk away from “underwater mortgages,” with hopes of discouraging others from such behavior.

Lenders are unlikely to target borrowers who negotiate in good faith or have defaulted on their home due to job loss or other unforeseen circumstances; other borrowers could be hounded by collection agencies that have purchased their mortgage debt from their lender.

FHA Delinquencies Decline for Third Month

For the third consecutive month, the number of delinquent home mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration has declined.

The delinquency rate is still high – 8.5 percent in April – but that is down from 9.4 percent in January.

The FHA was unwilling to applaud this as good news. “We’re not declaring victory by any stretch,” says David Stevens, the FHA’s commissioner. “There’s plenty of room for caution.”

But outside analysts were more positive. “It’s a very important trend to the extent that we’re not continuing to get worse,” says Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist in Leesburg, Va.

A Real Estate Recovery in 2013

Economists speaking at the recent annual meeting of the National Association of Real Estate Editors said the housing market likely will not recover until 2013.

Stan Humphries, Zillow chief economist, said home prices continue to decrease, and he sees the “tremendous amount of shadow inventory” delaying recovery. “We think the market will be flat in nominal terms for three to five years,” remarked Humphries. “We are not going to hit bottom and see a V-shaped recovery.”

Meanwhile, Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan said it will be another three years before new household formation and housing starts pick up. Duncan believes home prices will fall another 1 percent to 3 percent before bottoming out in the third quarter.

Both Humphries and Duncan said the federal home buyer tax credits shifted demand so that buyers took action earlier than they would have otherwise. “We’re going to see a payback in July and August,” noted Humphries.

NAR Praises House Passage of FHA Reform Bill

The National Association of REALTORS® applauded the House for overwhelming passage of FHA reform legislation that would allow the Federal Housing Administration to adjust monthly premiums on mortgage insurance.

This bill, H.R. 5072, FHA Reform Act of 2010, would strengthen the FHA loan insurance program while keeping it available and affordable to responsible home buyers. Allowing FHA to raise the monthly insurance premium would let FHA lower the up-front premium that places a burden on cash-strapped borrowers at closing.

“As the leading advocate for homeownership and housing issues, NAR is very pleased that FHA will be allowed to play its intended countercyclical role to provide qualified borrowers with access to prime credit. FHA is a critical part of our nation’s economic recovery,” said NAR President Vicki Cox Golder.

En route to passage, the House defeated an amendment that would have increased the FHA down payment from 3.5 percent to 5 percent, which would have disenfranchised more than 300,000 potential homeowners and would not have contributed significantly to FHA cash reserves.

“The current 3.5 percent down payment represents a significant financial commitment and sufficient investment to insure a borrower’s seriousness about homeownership,” said Golder. The proposed change could have an especially harsh impact on African American and Hispanic borrowers, who traditionally have much lower accumulated wealth and have benefited from the opportunities offered by fully documented, standard FHA loans with low down payments.

Post-Tax Credit Buyers May Save Money

Missing the tax credit deadline might have seemed like a big mistake to some home buyers, but waiting could have been the smartest thing to do.

Interest rates have fallen so dramatically since April 30th that the typical purchaser of a $350,000 home, financed with a $280,000 mortgage, would have saved a bundle by waiting until May.

At April’s average rate of 5.34 percent, a home buyer would have locked in a 30-year fixed rate loan with a monthly payment of $1,561.82.

The same borrower could have snagged a 30-year fixed rate loan at a rate of 4.625 percent in May and paid $1,439.59 per month.

That’s a $1,467 annual savings. Over 30 years, it’s a $44,003 savings, dwarfing the tax credit.

Strategic Defaulters Won’t Buy Again Soon

How long will it be before former homeowners who walked away from their mortgages can buy again?

Mortgage lenders are saying that in the future, losing a home because of illness or job loss will be seen differently than choosing to abandon a mortgage obligation for other reasons.

“If you made a strategic decision to default on paying your mortgage, it will work against you,” said Bill Merrell of the National Association of Review Appraisers and Mortgage Underwriters.

It will probably be seven or eight years before walkaways are able to buy another home, said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association. “Credit scores are only one component of a complete credit decision,” Brinkmann said. “[In these cases] credit scores are not a good indicator of their willingness to continue to pay their mortgage.”

More People Are Choosing to Rent

More than 76 percent of people say they would prefer to rent a home than buy one, up 5 percent from 2009, according to this year’s survey from the National Apartment Association.

The survey also calculated that 60 percent of renters plan to continue renting in 2011, with only 12 percent planning to buy a home in the next year.

Some 64 percent of renters cited having no responsibility for major repairs or maintenance as the primary reason they prefer to rent, followed by 33 percent who cited not being impacted by an unpredictable real estate market or susceptible to foreclosure.

« Previous Entries Next Entries »